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Using Foresight Scenarios in Public Institutions

Use plausible futures to test choices rather than predict one certain outcome.

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Foresight

A practical starting point.

Use plausible futures to test choices rather than predict one certain outcome. This guide offers a starting method for teams developing research and institutional decisions. Adapt it to the question, context and relevant scientific, ethics and data requirements.

Step 01

Frame the strategic question

Identify the decision, horizon and system boundary. A scenario about future government services should specify which services, users and jurisdictions matter. Agree what could still be changed today.

Step 02

Scan and separate drivers

Gather evidence on demographic, technological, fiscal, environmental and institutional shifts. Distinguish relatively stable trends from critical uncertainties. Include perspectives that may be absent from formal forecasts.

Step 03

Build contrasting futures

Create a small set of internally coherent scenarios with different combinations of uncertainties. Explain causal pathways and signals that would indicate a scenario is becoming more relevant. Avoid attaching precise probabilities where evidence cannot support them.

Step 04

Stress-test strategy

Ask how each option performs across scenarios, which commitments are hard to reverse and what early actions remain useful in several futures. Set indicators for monitoring. The value of foresight lies in better preparedness and adaptive decisions, not a claim to know the future.

Illustrative application

What this could look like.

A city considering long-lived service infrastructure might explore futures with different population growth and fiscal capacity. In each scenario, test whether the proposed investment remains useful and which parts could be phased. Monitor migration, demand and budget signals over time so the city can adapt instead of treating one forecast as destiny.

Put it into practice

A short working checklist.

  1. Write the precise decision or research question this work should support.
  2. Record the sources, methods, stakeholders and permissions needed before proceeding.
  3. Agree who reviews the output and how limitations will be communicated.
  4. Set a date to revisit the decision when evidence or conditions change.

GRS Group editorial guide · Published 24 September 2026 · Informational guidance, not an empirical study or formal professional advice.

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